Earthquake predictions, long term forecasts

Forecasts of Largest Regional Earthquakes
for Full Moon and New Moon Periods of

the Lunar Month Ahead

Breakthrough in Research (August 2008)

All new Long-term tables now include the expected dates for each earthquake forecast (column 2 below). This is being made possible by a very important breakthrough in the author's research which is being publicly tested and refined through the earthquake forecasts posted here. The expected dates are indicative only, and not binding.

These earthquake forecasts will now form the basis of any specific short-term predictions (for 10-day periods) which may be made on pages dedicated to the specific regions elsewhere on this web site. These short-term predictions will be subject to reviews of magnitude and timing as events unfold.

NOTES for Long-term Forecast tables below:

The largest earthquakes for each period are likely to fall within the magnitude ranges listed below (probability >85% when magnitude accuracy is compared to the mid range for each case).

Interim events given in the tables are subject to review if a larger
event occurs by the end of the forecast period. However, the forecasts in the first column will generally remain unchanged. If a review becomes necessary for a given region the date of the review will be shown. Readers should see the dedicated pages for specific regions where short-term predictions, for periods below, may be updated and reviewed.

COLOR CODING of cell backgrounds in column #1 indicates those regions which currently have short-term prediction tables on their respective pages (see side menu above).

The expected dates (in column 2) are indicative only, and not binding. For June/July 2009, about 83% of the long-term forecasts are falling within +/-5 days of the forecast date, and about 64% within +/-3 days. These statistics have been steadily improving. Currently, the success rate* for forecasting magnitudes is >85% . Successful forecasts are made up to 39 days in advance, the average being about 20 days ahead.
*where magnitude accuracy, as given in the tables, is equal to at least 80%

Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.

October 2009: The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in
  advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding
  that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude
  of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September)
  two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the
  first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few
months before all the sites below are fully included in
the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent.

                                 CURRENT TABLES
            Tables of Recent Earthquakes and Events Pending

Table 33b. Aug 25-Sept 7*, 2010
Full Mood Period (current table)

Table 34a. Sept 8-22*, 2010

New Mood Period (next table)

Please scroll down...

*Allow approximately +/-1 day for earthquakes that occur on the cusp between moon periods. Forecast events will be posted as they become available, with the times of posting given in the table.
Only the observed events subsequent to posting, or any revision, are valid for judging success.

*All dates are UTC

Please note new email address is: reginaldroberts@bigpond.com*

*See Disclaimer below

LAST UPDATE 0148 HOURS 4th September, 2010 (UTC).

APOLOGY: Forecasts are being posted as usual, but due to current private constraints older tables for the June-July period will not be completed until sometime in September. The author apologises for any inconvenience.

Disclaimer

The earthquake predictions and long-term forecasts are given in good faith and with due care, but the author accepts no responsibility for their use, either directly, indirectly, or implied. Any person or organisation who uses these earthquake predictions or forecasts for any purpose whatsoever, does so at their own risk. The author's forecasts do not cover all countries of the world, and nor do they usually cover all regions within a given country. Forecasts are made only for the specific study regions outlined in the tables below, and the author does not claim to be able to successfully forecast all large earthquakes in each of these regions.

*The Disclaimer above also applies to all emails from the author.

The Probability that a forecast event will happen is currently as follows: <M4.0 - greater than 85% probability
               M4.0-M4.9.............>95% probability
               M5.0-M5.9.............>90% probability
               M6.0+....................>70% probability

Table 33b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from Aug 25- Sept 7* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M3.7	92%	28th August 2010 Lat 60.642 Lon -152.100 135 km WSW of Anchorage Alaska (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M3.6	90%	28th August 2010 Lat 39.311 Lon -122.791 140 km NW of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone* within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484. (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Sept 3+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	No forecast
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico.	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M4.2	98%	1st September 2010 Lat 18.550 Lon -68.641 35 km ENE of La Romana, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.0	96%	25th August 2010 Lat -22.704 Lon -68.868 25 km SSE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Sept 2+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
China* Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4° *Note: the Xizang Region is discontinued in these forecast tables	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.0	94%	29th August 2010 Lat 27.211 Lon 103.015 145 km ENE of Panzhihua, Sichuan, China (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Aug 30+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Sept 3+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.2	94%	25th August 2010 Lat -21.848 Lon -174.491 110 km SE of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Sept 2+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M3.8	95%	2nd September 2010 Lat 38.23 Lon 23.25 45 km NW of Piraieús, Greece (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Sept 3+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Sept 1+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M4.9	92%	2nd September 2010 Lat 2.52 Lon 95.94 307 km SW of Binjai, Simeulue, Indonesia (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.6	98%	3rd September 2010 Lat -3.687 Lon 101.907 40 km WNW of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.0	100%	27th August 2010 Lat -5.46 Lon 102.81 195 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra, Ind. (USGS source -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 6 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Aug 30+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M4.0	98%	28th August 2010 Lat 42.86 Lon 12.63 32 km NW of Terni, Central Italy (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 7 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.1	98%	3rd September 2010 Lat 42.98 Lon 145.39 82 km E of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.4	94%	26th August 2010 Lat 36.089 Lon 136.771 275 km W of Tokyo, Near the West Coast of Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 31+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Aug 31+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.1	96%	30th August 2010 Lat -5.618 Lon 150.013 15 km WSW of Kimbe, New Britain, PNG (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region New Zone within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.1	90%	24th August 2010, 2217 hr on cusp of moon periods. Lat -40.14 Lon 174.87 130 km N of Wellington, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 3 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M7.0	68%	3rd September 2010 Lat -43.375 Lon 172.016 55 km WNW of Christchurch, South Is., NZ (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Aug 27+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M4.9	94%	28th August 2010 Lat 36.60 Lon 70.494 105 S of Faizabad, Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Sept 5+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Aug 28+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Sept 1+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M3.0	97%	30th August 2010 Lat 37.02 Lon -4.31 35 km N of Málaga, Spain (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 9 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Sept 2+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M5.0	98%	30th August 2010 Lat 24.882 Lon 122.212 70 km ESE of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)
Vanuatu New zone within ≈300 km from Isles Maskelynes, Vanuatu, at Lat -16.533 Lon 167.842	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Sept 4+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 21st Aug)	M4.9	96%	3rd September 2010 Lat -17.73 Lon 168.14 18 km W of PORT-VILA, VANUATU (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead

*EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 34a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from Sept 8-22* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Sept 20+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Sept 15+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Sept 14+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
California 2. 'Southern' New zone* within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484. (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Sept 17+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico.	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Sept 17+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Sept 18+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Sept 15+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
China* Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4° *Note: the Xizang Region is discontinued in these forecast tables	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Sept 14+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Sept 17+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Sept 16+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Greece New Zone within 200 km of a center point at Tanagra, Greece (Lat 38.329 & Lon 23.538)	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M5.2-M7.2 expected about Sept 18+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Sept 19+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Sept 14+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Sept 13+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Sept 13+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Sept 20+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Sept 18+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Sept 17+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
New Zealand Northern Region New Zone within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Sept 16+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Sept 17+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Sept 19+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Sept 18+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M1.8-M3.8 expected about Sept 19+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Sept 20+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Sept 11+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)
Vanuatu New zone within ≈300 km from Isles Maskelynes, Vanuatu, at Lat -16.533 Lon 167.842	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Sept 19+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 4th Sept)

*EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 33a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from Aug 10-24* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Aug 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M3.4	88%	17th August 2010 Lat 61.478 Lon -149.325 40 km NE of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.4-M4.4 expected about Auig 18+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.2	81%	17th August 2010 Lat 50.793 Lon -129.909 175 km W of Pt Hardy, B.C. Vancouver Island, Canada Region (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Aug 17+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.5	96%	16th August 2010 Lat 40.769 Lon -125.190 85 km W of Eureka, Offshore Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Aug 14+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M3.5	100%	10th August 2010 Lat 39.88 Lon -120.48 170 km NNE of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 6 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484 (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M2.0-M4.0 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 7th Aug)	M3.7	81%	15th August 2010 Lat 32.20 Lon -115.26 58 km SSE of Calexico, CA (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources). forecast 8 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Aug 15+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M3.8	87%	18th August 2010 Lat 19.354 Lon -155.049 40 km S of Hilo, HI (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Aug 16+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M3.3	63%	18th August 2010 Lat 19.15 Lon -66.44 80 km NNW of SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (USGS/NEIC source - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 14 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.1	96%	22nd August 2010 Lat -21.141 Lon -67.253 225 km NE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile, but in Potosi, Bolivia. (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 17+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.0	100%	22nd August 2010 Lat -36.470 Lon -73.049 40 km N of Concepcion, Offshore Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.1	79%	18th August 2010 Lat 32.25 Lon 104.64 88 km N of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 14 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Aug 23+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.7	79%	17th August 2010 Lat 34.98 Lon 81.15 262 SE of Hetian, Western Xizang, China (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 13 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Aug 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.3	87%	21st August 2010 Lat 6.12 Lon -77.92 255 km W of Itagüi, Near West Coast of Colombia (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 17 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Aug 18+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.9	95%	17th August 2010 Lat -20.768 Lon -178.739 15 km SSW of Ndoi Island, Fiji (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.4	78%	22nd August 2010 Lat 37.42 Lon 20.21 162 km SW of Pátrai, Ionian Sea (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 18 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.2	100%	19th August 2010 Lat 14.078 Lon -91.123 90 km SW of GUATEMALA, Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.8	83%	21st August 2010 Lat 2.24 Lon 96.78 242 km SW of Binjai, Simeulue, Indonesia (EMSC/CSEM< source)* forecast 17 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Aug 20+/-3 days (revised 1107 hours 18th Aug) Probability of M6.0 is >70%.	M4.9	Not forecast. Occurred before revision of 18th August	14th August 2010 Lat -4.09 Lon 100.29 220 km W of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (EMSC/CSEM source)* (EMSC/CSEM
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Aug 19+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.5	98%	11th August 2010 Lat -7.44 Lon 107.162 75 km SW of Bandung, Java (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Aug 14+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M3.3	79%	11th August 2010 Lat 45.56 Lon 7.85 56 km N of Turin, Northern Italy (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 7 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Aug 18+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.9	96%	14th August 2010 Lat 42.854 Lon 142.197 70 km ESE of Sapporo, Hokkaido (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 19+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.7	98%	13th August 2010 Lat 32.71 Lon 142.55 420 km SE of TOKYO, Izu Islands, Japan Region (USGS source -Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 9 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.2	96%	20th August 2010 Lat 39.43 Lon 71.97 108 km S of Farg'ona, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 16 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Aug 20+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.7	98%	19th August 2010 Lat 17.866 Lon -94.379 115 km SE of San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico (USGS source - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 15 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Aug 20+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M6.2	84%	15th August 2010 Lat -5.71 Lon 148.40 192 km NE of Lae, PNG (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 11 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.5	96%	12th August 2010 Lat -40.74 Lon 177.19 120 S of Hastings, North Is. (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 8 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Aug 18+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.5	100%	9th August 2010 Lat -45.04 Lon 167.48 160 km NW of Gore, South Island, New Zealand (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 5 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 17+/- 3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.0	100%	24th August 2010 Lat 36.62 Lon 71.28 216 km E of Qunduz, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 20 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Aug 14+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.0	98%	10th August 2010 Lat -14.079 Lon -72.694 100 km SW of Cusco, Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.3	81%	11th August 2010 Lat 14.34 Lon 124.17 344 km E of Manila, Philippines (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 7 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Aug 13+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.2	98%	18th August 2010 Lat -16.13 Lon -174.06 356 km SW of Apia, in Tonga Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 14 days ahead
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Aug 16+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M6.2	84%	20th August 2010 Lat -6.53 Lon 154.22 152 km W of Arawa, Bougainville Region, PNG EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 16 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Aug 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M3.3	94%	25th August 2010 on cusp of moon periods Lat 36.39 Lon -6.13 4 km S of Chiclana, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 21 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 17+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M5.0	96%	21st August 2010 Lat 23.526 Lon 121.653 170 km S of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Aug 18+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M4.4	96%	12th August 2010 Lat 39.66 Lon 27.61 23 km W of Balikesir, Western Turkey (EMSC source)* forecast 8 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Aug 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 4th Aug)	M7.3	73%	10th August 2010 Lat -17.561 Lon 168.028 35 km WNW of PORT-VILA Vanuatu (USGS spource) forecast 6 days ahead

*EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 32b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from July 26 - Aug 9* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.7-M4.7 expec ted about Aug 7 +/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July	M4.1	90%	8th August 2010 Lat 61.862 :Lon -149.222 80 km NNE of Anchorage, Southernl Alaska (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.3-M4.3 expected about Aug 2+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M3.2	97%	29th July 2010 Lat 49.16 Lon -129.82 243 km WSW of Pt Hardy, (Vancouver Island Region) (Natural Recources/ Earthquakes Canada) forecast 8 days ahead NOTE: The M4.2 at 0843 hours on the 26th July was an event that the models show belonged to the previous New Moon Period
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Aug 6+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.2	81%	28th July 2010 Lat 43.757 Lon -125.798 135 WNW of Coos Bay, OR (only 2-6 km outside zone) ((USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Aug 6+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.2	93%	30th July 2010 Lat 38.62 Lon -118.21 287 km E of Sacramento (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 9 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484 (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Aug 1+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.1	95%	6th August 2010 Lat 33.979 Lon -116.443 20 km NNE of Palm Springs, Southern California (USGS source). forecast 16 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	No forecast	M3.4	N/A	30th July 2010 Lat 19.304 Lon -155.223 50 km SW of Hilo, HI (USGS source)
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Aug 1+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M3.9	95%	8th August 2010 Lat 19.476Lon -65.390 135 km NE of San Juan, Puerto Rico (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.2	96%	5th August 2010 Lat -20.036 Lon -70.493 40 km WNW of Iquique, Offshore Tarapaca, Chile (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.0-M6.0 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.7	88%	5th August 2010 Lat -37.362 Lon -73.341 65 km SSW of Conception, Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.0-M5.0 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.0	100%	2nd August 2010 Lat 32.16 Lon 104.84 76 km N of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 12 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.4-M5.4 expected about July 31+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	awaiting regional output of data
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 2+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.0	96%	29th July 2010 Lat 3.999 Lon -75.046 125 km WSW of Bogota, Colombia (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Aug 3 +/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.3	93%	4th August 2010 Lat -21.796 Lon -175.150 75 km S of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.5-M5.5 expected about July 30+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.8	94%	3rd August 2010 Lat 38.896 Lon 21.425 75 km NNW of Patrai, Greece (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Aug 2+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.0	86%	30th July 2010 Lat 11.634 Lon -86.721 75 km SW of MANAGUA, Near Coast of Nicaragua (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M5.0-M7.0 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.4	73%	2nd August 2010 Lat 1.94 Lon 96.60 279 km SW of Binjai, Nias Region, Indonesia (EMSC source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.8-M5.8 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.8	100%	28th July 2010 Lat -3.20 Lon 100.72 185 km WNW of Bengkulu, Kep. Mentawai Region (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 7 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.1-M6.1 expected about July 31+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.4	94%	2nd August 2010 Lat -6.763 Lon 104.488 170 km SSW of T.-Telukbetung, Sumatra, in Sunda Strait (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Aug 5+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M3.2	91%	27th July 2010 Lat 38.79 Lon 17.91 196 S of Taranto, Southern Italy (EMSC source)* forecast 6 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.8-M5.8 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.8	100%	27th July 2010 Lat 42.34 Lon 143.79 81 km SE of Obihiro, Hokkaido, Japan ((EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 6 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Aug 3+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.0	94%	2nd August 2010 Lat 36.98 Lon 140.06 49 km N of Utsunomiya, Near East Coast of Honshu (EMSC/CSEM source)*
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 3+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.4	92%	3rd August 2010 Lat 38.451 Lon 69.627 80 km ESE of DUSHANBE, Tajikistan (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Aug 2+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.3	91%	5th August 2010 Lat 18.259 Lon -101.057 235 km WSW of MEXICO CITY, D.F., in Guerrero, Mex (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.3-M6.3 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M7.0	76%	4th August 2010 Lat -5.804 Lon 150.767 75 km ESE of Kimbe, New Britain, PNG (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 5+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.2	88%	28th July 2010 Lat -37.42 Lon 177.28 230 km E of Auckland in the Bay of Plenty, Nth Island. (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 7 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	No forecast	M4.6	N/A	27th July 2010 Lat -45.04 Lon 167.20 70 km SW of Milford Sound, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet)
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Aug 1+/- 3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.7	98%	31st July 2010 Lat 36.483 Lon 70.362 75 km SSW of Faizabad, Afghanistan, in the Hindu Kush Region. (USGS source)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 6+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.7	94%	5th August 2010 Lat -17.078 Lon -70.294 105 km N of Tacna, Southern Peru (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Aug 6+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.7	94%	30th July 2010 Lat 13.226 Lon 120.884 155 km S of Manila, Mindoro, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Aug 6+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.8	94%	29th July 2010 Lat -15.551 Lon -172.745 220 km SW of Apia, Samoa Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.4-M6.4 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.7	87%	2nd August 2010 Lat -11.063 Lon 163.029 381 km ESE of HONIARA, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Aug 3+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M3.1	100%	2nd August 2010 Lat 36.68 Lon -7.56 84 km SW of Huelva, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 12 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Aug 6 +/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M4.6	94%	31st July 2010 Lat 23.96 Lon 121.89 125 km SSE of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source - Preliminary Earthquake Report) forecast 10 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Aug 2+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M3.9	82%	6th August 2010 Lat 39.50 Lon 26.16 145 km NW of Manisa, Off the Coast of Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 16 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about July 29+/-3 days (posted 1800 hours 21st July)	M5.3	100%	28th July 2010 Lat -12.252 Lon 165.455 175 km SSW of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Isl. (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead

*EMSC/CSEM http://www.emsc-csem.org/

Table 31b. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from July 12-25* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.4-M4.4 expected about July 22+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M3.3	97%	26th July 2010, 0948 hrs Lat 61,862 Lon -150.847 94 km NW of Anchorage (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.3-M4.3 expected about July 19+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M5.0	66%	19th July 2010 Lat 49.46 Lon -130.05 233 km WSW of Pt Hardy, Vancouver Island Region (Natural Resources/ Earthquakes Canada) forecast 5 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	No forecast	M3.1	N/A	12th July 2010 Lat 40.68 Lon -124.61 40 km WSW of Eureka, CA (USGS/NEIC source)
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.8-M4.8 expected about July 15+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.0	95%	15th July 2010 Lat 38.82 Lon -122.81 120 km WNW of Sacramento, Northern CA (USGS source). forecast one day ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484 (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	No forecast	M4.0	N/A	24th July 2010 Lat 32.727 Lon 115.980 2 km SE of Ocotillo Southern California (USGS source).
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	No forecast	M3.1	N/A	12th July 2010 Lat 19.30 Lon -155.22 50 km SSW of Hilo, HI (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report)
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico	M3.8-M5.8 expected about July 15+/-3 days (posted 2230 hours 14th July)	M4.2	88%	17th July 2010 Lat 19.31 Lon -72.94 105 km NW of Port-au-Prince, Haiti (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 3 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	No forecast	M6.3	N/A	12th July 2010 Lat -22.12 Lon -68.19 85 km ENE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report)
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	No forecast	M6.6	N/A	14th July 2010 Lat -38.002 Lon -73.202 55 km SE of Lebu, Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source)
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.5-M5.5 expected about July 22+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.0	89%	14th July 2010 Lat 29.35 Lon 104.13 145 km S of Chengdu, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast same day
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	No forecast	M4.3	N/A	24th July 2010 Lat 32.91 Lon 88.63 362 km SE of Nagqu, Xizang Region (JOPENS & Google Earth sources)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about July 22+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	awaiting regional output of data
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.2-M6.2 expected about July 19+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.9	94%	15th July 2010 Lat -22.39 Lon -175.12 140 km S of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast one day ahead
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	No forecast )	M5.0	N/A	16th July 2010 Lat 39.38 Lon 23.93 155 km N of Athens, Greece, in Aegean Sea (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.7-M5.7 expected about July 15+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.9	96%	16th July 2010 Lat 12.86 Lon -88.51 75 km SSW of San Miguel, El Salvador (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 2 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	No forecast	M5.3	N/A	24th July 2010 Lat 0.99 Lon 99.54 120 km SE of Sibolga, Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. (USGS source -Preliminary Earthquake Report)
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.8-M5.8 expected about July 4+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th July)	M5.3	90%	21st July 2010 Lat -5.301 Lon 100.868 225 SW of Bengkulu, SW of Sumatra (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast one day ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.2-M6.2 expected about July 17+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M5.1	98%	23rd July 2010 Lat -4.58 Lon 102.53 90 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 9 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.9-M4.9 expected about July 22+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M3.4	87%	13th July 2010 Lat 40.60 Lon 15.54 66 km E of Salerno, Italy (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast made without knowledge of this event
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.5-M6.5 expected about July 20+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.8	89%	19th July 2010 Lat 44.52 Lon 141.20 165 km N of Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 5 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.2-M6.2 expected about July 15+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M5.0	96%	20th July 2010 Lat 34.30 Lon 135.74 50 km SSE of Osaka, Near the South Coast of Western Honshu, Japan (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 6 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.2-M6.2 expected about July19+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.2	81%	16th July 2010 Lat 39.72 Lon 70.22 82 km SE of Khujand, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 2 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.6-M5.6 expected about July 22+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.6	100%	14th July 2010 Lat 17.87 Lon -97.50 123 km NW of OAXACA, OAXACA, Mexico (USGS/NEIC source) forecast same day
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about July 15+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M7.3	71%	18th July 2010 Lat -5.939 Lon 150.572 65 km SE of Kimbe, New Britain (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	No forecast	M5.3	N/A	11th July 2010 Lat -38.97 Lon 177.35 70 km SW of Gisborne, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	No forecast	M4.8	N/A	13th July 2010 Lat -46.21 Lon 165.71 210 km W of Invercargill, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet)
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.2-M6.2 expected about July 22+/- 3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M4.5	86%	15th July 2010 Lat 36.89 Lon 70.80 174 km E of Qunduz, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast one day ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	No forecast	M4.7	N/A	12th July 2010 Lat -17.01 Lon -70.03 130 km S of Puno, Peru (USGS source- preliminary earthquake report)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	No forecast	M4.9	N/A	20th July 2010 Lat 11.80 Lon 125.44 73 km NE of Tacloban, Samar, Philippines (EMSC/CSEM source)*
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.9-M6.9 expected about July15+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M5.9	100%	25th July 2010 Lat -15.07 Lon 173.55 235 km SW of Apia, Samoa (USGS/NEIC source) forecast 11 days ahead
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.4-M6.4 expected about July 23+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July) typographical errors corrected 31st July)	M4.9	91%	20th July 2010 Lat -8.71 Lon 157.72 255 km WNW of HONIARA, Solomon Islands (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 6 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	No forecast	M4.4	N/A	25th July 2010 Lat 36.38 Lon -7.58 112 km SW of Huelva, in Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC/CSEM source)*
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	No forecast	M5.4	N/A	25th July 2010 Lat 22.748 Lon 120.860 260 km SSW of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source)
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	No forecast	M4.2	N/A	25th July 2010 Lat 36.98 Lon 30.41 28 km W of Antalya, Western Turkey (EMSC/CSEM source)*
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.5-M6.5 expected about July 15+/-3 days (posted 2030 hours 14th July)	M6.1	90%	22nd July 2010 Lat-15.14 Lon 168.15 115 km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source - preliminary earthquake report) forecast 8 days ahead

Table 31b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from June 26 - July 11* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.2-M4.2 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M3.0-M5.0 expected about July 3+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M2.5-M4.5 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about July 1+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)	M3.8	97%	27th June 2010 Lat 35.20 Lon -118.60 42 km SE of Bakersfield, CA (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 7 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484 (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)	M5.5	73%	7th July 2010 Lat 33.42 Lon -116.49 100 km NE of San Diego, CA (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 17 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	No forecast )
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico	M3.0-M5.0 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.6-M5.6 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.3-M6.3 expected about July 1+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.0-M5.0 expected about June 30+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)	M4.8	83%	30th June 2010 Lat 32.36 Lon 104.95 68 km N of Jiangyou, Sichuan-Gansu Border Region (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 10 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.2-M5.2 expected about July 1+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.5-M5.5 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about July 5+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.9-M5.9 expected about July 2+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.3-M6.3 expected about July 6+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)	M5.4	98%	30th June 2010 Lat -0.74 Lon 99.79 66 km WNW of Padang, Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.8-M5.8 expected about July 4+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)	M5.5	87%	27th June 2010 Lat -4.49 Lon 101.34 184 km W of Manna, Southern Sumatra (USGS & Google Earth sources) forecast 7 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)	M5.2	96%	9th July 2010 Lat -6.01 Lon 105.50 150 km W of JAKARTA, in Sunda Strait (USGS/NEIC and Google Earth Sources) forecast 19 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.8-M4.8 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.0-M6.0 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.9-M5.9 expected about July 6+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.9-M5.9 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.7-M5.7 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.3-M6.3 expected about June 29+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.5-M5.5 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.6-M5.6 expected about July 8+/- 3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M3.3-M5.3 expected about July 8+/-3 days posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.8-M5.8 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.5-M5.5 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.4-M6.4 expected about July 1+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about June 30+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	No forecast
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.6-M4.6 expected about July 2+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.1-M6.1 expected about July 8+/-3 days (posted 2215 hours 20th June)

Table 31a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from June 12-25* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.0-M4.0 expected about June 20+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.7-M4.7 expected about June 15+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M2.5-M4.5 expected about June 15+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M3.0-M5.0 expected about June 18+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)	M4.5	89%	12th June 2010 1529 hrs Lat 37.45 Lon -117.52 255 km NW of Las Vegas (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 10 hours ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484 (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M2.1-M4.1 expected about June 16+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)	M5.8	53%	15th June 2010 Lat 32.70 Lon -115.92 115 km E of San Diego, CA (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 3 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.2-M4.2 expected about June 17+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico	M3.8-M5.8 expected about June 15+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.9-M5.9 expected about June 19+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M3.8-M5.8 expected about June 16+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.5-M5.5 expected about June 16+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	No forecast made
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	No forecast made
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.2-M6.2 expected about June 15+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 18+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.2-M6.2 expected about June 17+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.2-M6.2 expected about June 15+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)	M4.7	89%	21st June 2010 Lat 4.59 Lon 94.97 425 km WNW of Medan, Northern Sumatra (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 9 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 15+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)	M4.9	96%	12th June 2010, 1336 hrs, Lat -5.55 Lon 102.72 201 km S of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra, Ind. (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 8 hours ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 18+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)	M5.9	86%	26th June 2010 (on cusp of the moon periods) Lat -8.02 Lon 108.09 242 km SE of JAKARTA, Java (USGS/NEIC and Google Earth sources) forecast 14 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about June 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 20+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.7-M5.7 expected about June 17+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.9-M5.9 expected about June 20+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about June 20+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.1-M5.1 expected about June 16+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M2.8-M4.8 expected about June 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.8-M5.8 expected about June 23+/- 3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.2-M6.2 expected about June 22+/-3 days posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 21+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 21+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about June 19+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M4.4-M6.4 expected about June 22+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.3-M5.3 expected about June 17+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 20+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 12th June)

Table 30b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from May 28 - June 11* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska NEW 'Anchorage Region' within ≈140 km of a center at Lat 61.82 and Lon -149.125, 77 km NE of Anchorage, Alaska	M2.0-M4.0 expected about June 4+/-3 days (posted 1142 hours 29th May)
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M4.0-M6.0 expected about June 5+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M2.9-M4.9 expected about June 4+/-3 days (posted 0430 hours 29th May)
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.9-M4.9 expected about June 5+/-3 days (posted 0430 hours 29th May)	M3.3	85%	1st June 2010 Lat 38.79 Lon -122.81 117 km NNW of San Francisco, Northern CA. (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources). forecast 3 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' New zone* within 350 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484. (Includes Northern Baja California, Mexico)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about June 7+/-3 days (posted 2136 hours 31st May)	M4.4	98%	2nd June 2010 Lat 32.14 Lon -115.20 194 km ESE of San Diego, in Baja California, Mexico (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources). forecast 2 days ahead
Hawaii USA Within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.3-M4.3 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 0430 hours 29th June)
Caribbean New Zone within ≈500 km of center at Lat 19.09 Lon -70.413, at Rincon, Dominican Republic. This new region includes all of Haiti, Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico.	M2.6-M4.6 expected about June 7+/-3 days (posted 1010 hours 29th May)
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 3+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.5-M6.5 expected about June 2+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.0-M5.0 expected about June 6+/-3 days (posted 1230 hours 29th May)
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	No forecast made
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	No forecast made
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.8-M5.8 expected about June 7+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M2.8-M4.8 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 29th May)
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.7-M5.7 expected about June 2+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 29th May)
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about June 2+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)	M5.4	92%	3rd June 2010 Lat 4.75 Lon 95.79 345 km NW of Medan, Northern Sumatra (USGS & Google Earth sources) forecast 6 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.5-M6.5 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)	M5.3	96%	28th May 2010, 1833 hrs. Lat -3.88 Lojn 100.89 151 km W of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (EMSC/CSEM source)* forecast 7 hours ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 1120 hours 28th May)	M5.0	100%	4th June 2010 Lat -9.56 Lon 108.28 403 km SSE of JAKARTA, Java (USGS/NEIC and Google Earth sources) forecast 7 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.8-M4.8 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 0310 hours 29th May)
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.8-M5.8 expected about June 7+/-3 days (posted 2300 hours 28th May)
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.1-M6.1 expected about June 2+/-3 days (posted 2300 hours 28th May)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 2300 hours 28th May)
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.7-M5.7 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 2300 hours 28th May)
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about May 31+/-3 days (posted 2324 hours 28th May)
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.6-M5.6 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 2350 hours 28th May)
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.5-M5.5 expected about June 4+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 29th May)
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.9-M5.9 expected about June 7+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 29th May)
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	No forecast made
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.9-M5.9 expected about June 1+/-3 days (posted 2350 hours 28th May)
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.5-M5.5 expected about June 3+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 29th May)
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M3.7-M5.7 expected about June 4+/-3 days (posted 0245 hours 29th May)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about June 1+/-3 days (posted 0245 hours 29th May)
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.9-M5.9 expected about June 4+/-3 days (posted 0245 hours 29th May)
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.2-M5.2 expected about June 8+/-3 days (posted 0245 hours 29th May)
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	No forecast made

*The region has been extended because of significant interactions between earthquakes in Southern California and south of the border into Baja California, Mexico.

Table 30a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from May 14-27* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈160 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M1.8-M3.8 expected about May 23+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M3.4	82%	21st May 2010 Lat 62.425 Lon -149.942 137 km N of Anchorage, Central Alaska (USGS source - subject to review) forecast 18 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.7-M4.7 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M3.8	97%	16th May 2010 Lat 50.47 Lon -130.22 199 km W of Pt. Hardy, BC (Natural Resources Canada/Earthquakes Canada source) forecast 13 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M2.8-M4.8 expected about May 17+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M4.0	95%	14th May 2010 Lat 42.32 Lon -126.32 175 km WNW of Crescent City, Off Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead (USGS source
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M3.5	94%	14th May 2010 Lat 35.963 Lon -117.333 22 km N of Trona, CA (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M2.8-M4.8 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M3.9	97%	15th May 2010 Lat 34.084 Lon -119.04 73 km W of Los Angeles Civic Center, Channel Islands Region, CA forecast 12 days ahead
Hawaii USA New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.9-M3.9 expected about May 23+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M3.5	83%	18th May 2010 Lat 19.317 Lon -155.216 15 km S of Volcano, HI (USGS source -subject to review) forecast 15 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.8-M4.8 expected about May 20+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M5.8	66%	16th May 2010 Lat 18.40 Lon 67.07 99 km W of San Juan, Puerto Rico (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Dominican Republic & Haiti Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M2.7-M4.7 expected about May 18+/-3 days (posted 0540 hours 3rd May)	M4.5	82%	20th May 2010 Lat 18.419 Lon -72.760 45 km WSW of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.3-M5.3 expected about May 17+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M4.8	90%	22nd May 2010 Lat -21.778 Lon -70.252 155 km WNW of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M3.8-M5.8 expected about May 25+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M5.7	84%	21st May 2010 Lat -34.449 -71.629 85 km WSW of Rancagua, Libertador O''Higgins, Chile (USGS source)
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.2-M5.2 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M5.0	84%	25th May 2010 Lat 31.168 Lon 103.553 75 km NW of Chengdu, Eastern Sichuan, China (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	No forecast
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	No forecast
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.5-M6.5 expected about May 17+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M5.7	96%	15th May 2010 Lat -23.575 Lon -176.492 300 km SSW of Nuku'alofa' Tonga, South of Fiji Islands (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.0-M5.0 expected about May 18+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M4.0	100%	19th May 2010 Lat 36.60 Lon 21.57 183 km S of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 7 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.2-M6.2 expected about May 21+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M4.5	86%	18th May 2010 Lat 14.47 Lon -94.41 420 km W of Guatemala City Off the Coast of Chiapas, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.5-M6.5 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M4.2	76%	16th May 2010 Lat -0.57 Lon 99.52 100 km WNW of Padang, Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.0-M6.0 expected about May 20+/-3 days (posted 1140 hours 11th May)	M4.7	94%	16th May 2010 Lat -0.51 Lon 99.38 118 km NW of Padang, Southern Sumatra (EMSC source) forecast 5 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.5-M6.5 expected about May 25+/-3 days (posted 0522 hours 12th May)	M5.2	94%	19th May 2010 Lat -6.636 Lon 105.171 190 km WSW of Jakarta Java, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M3.3-M5.3 expected about May 17+/-3 days (posted 0522 hours 12th May)	M2.9	67%	26th May 2010 Lat 45.13 Lon 7.37 25 km W of Turin, Italy (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.1-M6.1 expected about May 22+/-3 days (posted 0522 hours 12th May)	M4.8	94%	24th May 2010 Lat 45.37 Lon 149.19 366 km NE 0f Nemuro, Hokkaido (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.9-M5.9 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.9-M5.9 expected about May 17+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M4.7	98%	23rd May 2010 Lat 40.021 Lon 78.277 200 km NNE of Shache, Southern Xinjiang, China forecast 11 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.6-M5.6 expected about May 19+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M4.6	100%	25th May 2010 Lat 17.46 Lon -100.85 120 NW of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about May 21+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M4.2	81%	16th May 2010 Lat -5.48 Lon 151.97 165 km SW of Taron, New Ireland (USGS source) forecast 4 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M4.2-M6.2 expected about May 17+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M4.6	88%	17th May 2010 Lat -36.62 Lon 177.07 210 km E of Auckland, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 5 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.0-M5.0 expected about May 22+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M3.0	75%	26th May 2010 Lat -43.38 Lon 172.52 20 km N of Christchurch (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 14 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.6-M5.6 expected about May 20+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M4.6	100%	27th May 2010 Lat 34.07 Lon 68.36 57 km NW of Gazni, Central Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.0-M6.0 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 12th May)	M6.1	82%	23rd May 2010 Lat -13.921 Lon -74.325 150 km E of Ica, Central Peru (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.2-M6.2 expected about May 23+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M4.7	90%	22nd May 2010 Lat 15.164 Lon 121.743 105 km NE of Manila, Luzon, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.7-M6.7 expected about May 21+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M4.8	84%	22nd May 2010 Lat -15.21 Lon -172.13 159 km S of Apia, Samoa (EMSC source) forecast 10 days ahead
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M3.3-M5.3 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M5.2	83%	28th May 2010 Lat -10.205 Lon 161.06 150 km SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about May 20+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M2.8	80%	16th May 2010 Lat 37.89 Lon -2.62 46 km N of Baza, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 4 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M4.4-M6.4 expected about May 19+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M4.3	80%	23rd May 2010 Lat 22.63 Lon 120.57 285 km SSW of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.3-M5.3 expected about May 24+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M4.3	100%	15th May 2010 Lat 41.20 Lon 30.10 50 km Nof Izmit, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 3 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.7-M6.7 expected about May 20+/-3 days (posted 1115 hours 12th May)	M7.2	79%	27th May 2010 Lat -13.710 Lon 166.507 215 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead

Table 29b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from April 28 - May 13* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈160 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M4.0-M6.0 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 1015 hours 27th April)	M2.9	58%	13th May 2010 Lat 61.506 Lon -149.701 35 km N of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M3.0-M5.0 expected about May 5+/-3 days (posted 2330 hours 27th Apr)	M4.5	89%	6th May 2010 Lat 48.326 Lon -127.847 361 km WSW of Vancouver Island, BC Region, Canada (USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M3.2-M5.2 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 1128 hours 27th April)	M5.1	82%	13th May 2010 Lat 42.182 Lon -126.475 194 km WNW of Crescent City, Off Coast of Oregon (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.8-M4.8 expected about May 7+/-3 days (posted 2324 hours 7th April)	M3.9	97%	10th May 2010 Lat 35.53 Lon -118.36 22 km N of Trona, Central California (USGS source - subject to review) forecast 29 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M4.5-M6.5 expected about May 4+/-3 days (posted 1940 hours 6th April)	M4.8* (54 km outside nominated zone)	(87%)	8th May 2010 Lat 32.680 Lon -115.814 18 km ESE of Ocotillo, Southern California (USGS source) forecast 32 days ahead
Hawaii USA New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.5-M3.5 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 0125 hours 28th Apr)	M2.7	92%	13th May 2010 Lat 19.235 Lon -155.403 9 km ENE of Pahala, HI (USGS source, subject to review) forecast 15 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M2.7-M4.7 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 28th Apr)	M4.0	92%	10th May 2010 Lat 19.02 Lon -66.55 78 km NW of San Juan, PR (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Dominican Republic & Haiti Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about May 11+/-3 days (revised 0718 hours 4th May)	M3.3	66%	5th May 2010 Lat 18.47 Lon -67.20 115 km W of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast one day ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M3.3-M5.3 expected about May 5+/-3 days (posted 1940 hours 6th April)	M5.4	80%	4th May 2010 Lat -21.867 Lon -68.235 100 km NE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile (USGS source) forecast 28 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region New Region (posted 28 February after the M8.8 earthquake) within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M3.7-M5.7 expected about May 4+/-3 days (posted 2045 hours 6th April)	M6.2	76%	3rd May 2010 Lat -38.053 Lon -73.490 115 km NW of Temuco, Chile (EMSC source) forecast 27 days ahead
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.3-M5.3 expected about May 9+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 28th Apr)	M3.6	84%	7th May 2010 Lat 31.28 Lon 103.76 95 km WSW of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 9 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	No forecast made for this period		N/A
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.9-M5.9 expected about May 11+/-3 days (posted 0125 hours Apr 28)	awaiting regional output of data
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.2-M6.2 expected about May 6+/-3 days (posted 2045 hours 6th April)	M5.2	100%	8th May 2010 Lat -18.02 Lon -174.94 348 km N of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (EMSC source) forecast 26 days ahead
Greece within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.2-M5.2 expected about May 11+/-3 days (posted 2045 hours 6th April)	M4.1	98%	11th May 2010 Lat 36.13 Lon 21.76 235 S of Pátrai, Southern Greece (EMSC source) forecast 35 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.5-M5.5 expected about May 7+/-3 days (posted 2045 hours 6th April)	M4.3	96%	3rd May 2010 Lat 13.118 Lon -89.196 65 km S of SAN SALVADOR, Offshore El Salvador (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.7-M6.7 expected about May 6+/-3 days (posted 2330 hours 27th Apr)	M7.2	79%	9th May 2010 Lat 3.775 Lon 96.055 215 km SSE of Banda Aceh Northern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M3.7-M5.7 expected about May7+/-3 days (posted 1208 hours 27th April)	M6.5	72%	5th May 2010 Lat -4.09 Lon 101,09 133 km W of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.7-M5.7 expected about May 6+/-3 days (posted 1208 hours 27th April)	M4.7	100%	13th May 2010 Lat -3.248 Lon 103.015 105 km NE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.3-M4.3 expected about May 1+/-3 days (posted 2220 hours 6th April)	M3.3	100%	11th May 2010 Lat 39.36 Lon 17.50 126 km S of Taranto, Southern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 35 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.8-M5.8 expected about May 11+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 28th Apr)	M4.8	100%	8th May 2010 Lat 45.22 Lon 150.29 535 km ENE of Yubetsu, Hokkaido, Japan (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 10 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about May 5+/-3 days (posted 2220 hours 6th April)	M6.1	82%	3rd May 2010 Lat 29.614 Lon 141.064 685 km S of Tokyo, Izu Islands Region, Japan (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.5-M5.5 expected about May 5+/-3 days (posted 2220 hours 6th April)	M4.9	92%	11th May 2010 Lat 41.403 Lon 71.907 105 km WNW of Jalal-Abad, Kyrgyzstan (USGS source) forecast 35 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.5-M5.5 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 0125 hours 28th Apr)	M4.3	96%	13th May 2010 Lat 16.846 Lon -94.506 105 km NE of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.3-M6.3 expected about May 6+/-3 days (posted 2220 hours 6th April)	M4.5	85%	30th April 2010 Lat -4.40 Lon 153.14 97 km E of kokopo, New Ireland Region, PNG (EMSC source) forecast 24 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.6-M5.6 expected about May 11+/-3 days (posted 0303 hours 28th Apr)	M5.1	90%	5th May 2010 Lat -39.09 Lon 176.24 50 km S of Taupo, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 7 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.4-M5.4 expected about May 9+/-3 days (posted 2330 hours 27th Apr)	M4.6	96%	5th May 2010 Lat -45.17 Lon 166.61 120 km SW of Milford Sound, South Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 8 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.4-M5.4 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 1240 hours 27th April)	M4.8	92%	11th May 2010 Lat 36.61 Lon 71.16 206 km E of Qunduz, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	No forecast made for this period		N/A
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.5-M5.5 expected about May 11+/-3 days (posted 0325 hours 28th Apr)	M4.8	94%	29th April 2010 Lat 13.447 Lon 122.811 235 km ESE of Manila (USGS source) forecast one day ahead
Samoa-Tonga within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.1-M6.1 expected about May 7 +/-3 days (posted 2330 hours 27th Apr)	M4.9	96%	4th May 2010 Lat -15.44 Lon -173.131 235 km SW of Apia, Samoa, In Tonga Region (USGS source) forecast 5 days ahead
Solomons Region within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about May 9+/-3 days (posted 2220 hours 6th April)	M5.6	89%	5th May 2010 Lat -6.259 Lon 154.825 80 km W of Arawa, Bougainville, PNG (USGS source) forecast 29 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.2-M4.2 expected about May 4+/-3 days (posted 2220 hours 6th April)	M2.9	91%	2nd May 2010 Lat 35.91 Lon -4.68 70 km S of Marbella, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC source) forecast 26 days ahead
Taiwan Region within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.5-M5.5 expected about May 10+/-3 days (posted 0035 hours 28th Apr)	M4.5	100%	2nd May 2010 Lat 22.92 Lon 120.63 31 km NE of Pingtung, Taiwan (EMSC source) forecast 4 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M2.6-M4.6 expected about May 7+/-3 days (posted 0325 hours 28th Apr)	M3.3	92%	12th May 2010 Lat 38.79 Lon 26.09 100 km NW of Izmir, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about May 11+/-3 days (posted 0325 hours 28th Apr)	M5.1	96%	29th April 2010 Lat -13. 239 Lon 167.067 255 km N of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast one day ahead

*This region is under review because of interactions between earthquakes in Southern California and south of the border into Baja California, Mexico.

Table 29a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from April 14-27* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within ≈160 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M1.9-M3.9 expected about Apr 25+/-3 days (posted 2310 hours 30th Mar)	M3.3	88%	23rd April 2010 Lat 6.148 Lon -147.836 103 km E of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source - subject to review) forecast 24 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA newly defined within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Apr 25+/-3 days (posted 0910 hours 31st Mar)	M3.6	95%	27th April 2010 Lat 48.99 Lon -129.84 258 km SW of Pt. Hardy, BC (Natural Resources Canada/Earthquakes Canada source) forecast 27 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast newly defined within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 21+/-3 days (posted 1015 hours Mar 22)	M4.4	91%	17th April 2010 Lat 40.392 Lon -127.169 244 km W of Petrolia, Off the Coast of Northern CA. (USGS source) forecast 26 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Apr 17+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours Mar 21)	M3.5	94%	27th April 2010 Lat 38.82 Lon -122.8 42 km NNW pof Santa Rosa, Northern CA (USGS/NEIC & Google Earth sources) forecast 36 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M3.5-M5.5 expected about April 24-28 (revised 0112 hours 24th Apr)	M4.8 53 km outside nominated zone	(94%)	27th April 2010 Lat 32.682 Lon -115.835 16 km ENE of Ocotillo, CA, (53 km outside nominated zone) (USGS source) forecast 3 days ahead
Hawaii USA New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Apr 23+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 25th Mar)	M3.2	84%	23rd April 2010 Lat 19.432 Lon -155.623 29 km NNW of Pahala, HI (USGS source - subject to review) forecast 29 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 25+/-3 days (posted 2310 hours 30th Mar)	M4.8	83%	17th April 2010 :Lat 19.513 Lon -65.388 138 km NNE of Carolina, Puerto Rico Region (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Dominican Republic & Haiti Region New Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 20+/-3 days (revised 0748 hours 16th April)	M5.0	100%	18th April 2010 Lat 18.13 Lon -68.48 60 km ESE of La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic (USGS source) forecast 2 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 17+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 30th Mar)	M4.9	98%	15th April 2010 Lat -21.150 Lon -68.550 150 km NNE of Calama, Antofagasta Chile (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region New Region (posted 28 February after the M8.8 earthquake) within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Apr 25+/-3 days (posted 1100 hours 22nd Mar)	M5.9	76%	23rd April 2010 Lat -37.415 Lon -72.890 50 km W of Los Angeles, Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source) forecast 32 days ahead
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 30th Mar)	M4.9	88%	27th April 2010 Lat 30.62 Lon 101.58 161 km NW of Yaan, Western Sichuan, China (EMSC source) forecast 28 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0740 hours 21st Mar)	awaiting regional output of data
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Apr 20+/-3 days (posted 1110 hours 22nd Mar)	awaiting regional output of data
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Apr 19+/-3 days (posted 0740 hours 21st Mar)	M5.2	94%	16th April 2010 Lat -23.725 Lon -176.972 335 km SSW of Nuku'alofa, Tonga - South of Fiji Islands (USGS source) forecast 26 days ahead
Greece newly defined within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.3-M5.3 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 2345 hours 30th Mar)	M4.1	95%	20th April 2010 Lat 37.54 Lon 20.65 123 km SW of Pátrai, Greece, in the Ionian Sea (EMSC source) forecast 21 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 21st Mar)	M5.6	100%	18th April 2010 Lat 14.523 Lon -92.014 160 km W of Guatemala City, Guatemala, (USGS source) forecast 28 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Apr 17+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 21st Mar)	M4.8	90%	25th April 2010 Lat 5.33 Lon 94.30 116 km W of Banda aceh, Northern Sumatra (EMSC source) forecast 35 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 21st Mar)	M5.1	100%	21st April 2010 48 km S of Payakumbuh, Southern Sumatra, Ind. (EMSC source) forecast 31 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Apr 23+/-3 days (posted 1000 hours 25th Mar)	M4.4	98%	27th April 2010 Lat -7.78 Lon 107.99 57 km SW of Tasikmalaya, Java (EMSC source) forecast 33 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Apr 24+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 31st Mar)	M4.0	78%	15th April 2010 Lat 43.49 Lon 12.44 42 km N of Perugia, Central Italy (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0305 hours 30th Mar)	M5.1	100%	22nd April 2010 Lat 44.12 Lon 148.37 346 km NE of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (EMSC & Google Earth sources) forecast 23 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 20+/-3 days (posted 0740 hours 21st Mar)	M5.0	100%	26th April 2010 Lat 33.630 Lon 136.958 345 km SW of Tokyo, Off the South Coast of Western Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 36 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 31st Mar)	M4.8	98%	20th April 2010 Lat 40.02 Lon 72.28 30 km SE of Kizilkiya, Kyrgyzstan (EMSC source) forecast 20 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region Newly defined within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 21st Mar)	M5.3	85%	16th April 2010 Lat 16.606 Lon -98.166 160 km WSW of Oaxaca, OAXACA, MEXICO (USGS source) forecast 26 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG Newly defined within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0700 hours 21st Mar)	M5.2	100%	27th April 2010 Lat -5.83 Lon 151.35 137 km E of Kimbe, New Britain (EMSC source) forecast 37 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Apr 21+/-3 days (posted 0910 hours 31st Mar)	M4.1	87%	17th April 2010 Lat -37.93 Lon 177.73 70 km E of Whakatane, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 17 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Apr 23+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 21st Mar)	M4.5	98%	18th April 2010 Lat -45.12 Lon 167.45 60 km SW of Milford Sound Fiordland, South Island NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 28 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 22+/-3 days (posted 0010 hours 31st Mar)	M4.8	96%	20th April 2010 Lat 34.79 Lon 72.99 58 km E of Mingaora, Pakistan (EMSC source) forecast 20 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Apr 25+/-3 days (posted 1015 hours 22nd Mar)	M4.7	85%	26th April 2010 Lat -16.587 Lon -73.991 265 km W of Arequipa, Near Coast of Southern Peru (USGS source) forecast 35 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Apr 19+/-3 days (posted 0850 hours 23rd Mar)	M5.0	98%	19th April 2010 Lat 19.57 Lon 120.43 550 km N of Manila, Babuyan Islands Region. Philippines (USGS source) forecast 27 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Apr 21+/-3 days (posted 0910 hours 31st Mar)	M5.9	81%	21st April 2010 Lat -15.109 Lon -173.256 215 km SW of Apia, Samoa (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	No forecast made for this period	(M5.0)	N/A	24th April 2010 Lat -10.409 Lon 161.329 185 km SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source)
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco Newly defined within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Apr 21+/-3 days (posted 0850 hours 23rd Mar)	M4.3	78%	22nd April 2010 Lat 35.2 Lon -6.34 16 km W of Larache, Strait of Gibraltar (EMSC source) forecast 30 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Apr 20+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 21st Mar)	M4.8	90%	25th April 2010 Lat 22.08 Lon 121.60 48 km SE of Taitung, Taiwan Region (EMSC source) forecast 25 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 23+/-3 days (posted 0910 hours 31st Mar)	M3.6	90%	24th April 2010 Lat 38.17 Lon 30.89 54 km NE of Isparta, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 24 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.4-M6.4 expected about Apr 20+/-3 days (posted 1015 hours 22nd Mar)	M4.7	87%	17th April 2010 Lat -12.96 Lon 169.12 354 km NE of Luganville, in the Santa Cruz Islands Reg. (EMSC source) forecast 26 days ahead

Table 28b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from March 30 - April 13* 2010

REGIONS USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in alphabetical order	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within ≈160 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Apr 4+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 20th Mar)	M4.6	76%	7th April 2010 Lat 61.578 Lon -149.661 43 km N of Anchorage, Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA newly defined within ≈400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M2.6-M4.6 expected about Apr 9+/-3 days (posted 0705 hours 20th Mar)	M3.7	97%	2nd April 2010 Lat 50.56 Lon -130.26 201 W of Pt Hardy, BC (Natural Resources Canada -Earthquakes Canada) forecast 13 days ahead
California - Oregon USA Border Region Coast & Off Coast newly defined within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast, Northern CA	M2.2-M4.2 expected about Apr 5+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 20th Mar)	M3.9	82%	12th April 2010 Lat 40.301 Lon -124.442 14 km W of Petrolia, Offshore Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
California 1. 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Apr 2+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 20th Mar)	M4.1	85%	7th April 2010 Lat 35.940 Lon -120.495 7 km NW of Parkfield, Central CA (USGS source). forecast 18 days ahead
California 2. 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Apr 10+/- 3 days (posted 0115 hours 20th Mar)	M3.9	90%	4th April 2010 Lat 33.157 Lon -116.446 78 km ENE of San Diego, Southern California (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Hawaii USA New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Apr 8+/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 20th Mar)	M3.8	82%	14th April 2010, 1738 hrs Lat 19.207 Lon -155.515 4 km W of Pahala, HI USGS source) forecast 25 days ahead
Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 6+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 20th Mar)	M4.4	91%	10th April 2010 Lat 19.016 Lon -65.089 116 km NE of Carolina, PR,in the Virgin Islands Region (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Caribbean 2. Dominican Republic & Haiti Region New Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 8+/-3 days (posted 0115 hours 20th Mar)	M4.6	87%	13th April 2010 Lat 19.764 Lon -76.553 70 km S of Bayamo, Cuba (USGS source) forecast 24 days ahead
Chile 1. Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 3+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	M5.5	91%	5th April 2010 Lat -19.918 Lon -68.773 150 km ENE of Iquique, Tarapaca, Chile (USGS source) forecast 16 days ahead
Chile 2. Central Region New Region (posted 28 February after the M8.8 earthquake) within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Apr 8+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	M5.9	83%	2nd April 2010 Lat -36.194 Lon -72.771 360 km SSW of SANTIAGO, Bio-Bio, Chile (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
China 1. Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Apr 10+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	M3.7	92%	9th April 2010 Lat 32.06 Lon 104.91 66 N of Mianyang, Sichuan, China (JOPENS and Google Earth sources) forecast 20 days ahead
China 2. Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Apr 7+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	awaiting regional output of data
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.2-M5.2 expected about Apr 3+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	M4.5	93%	13th April 2010 Lat 4.478 Lon -76.530 280 km W of Bogota, Colombia (USGS source). forecast 24 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	M5.9	88%	10th April 2010 Lat -20.113 Lon -176.231 155 km NW of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 21 days ahead
Greece newly defined within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.1-M5.1 expected about Apr 8+/-3 days (posted 0335 hours 20th Mar)	M4.0	98%	4th April 2010 Lat 38.39 Lon 22.43 63 km E of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 20th Mar)	M4.7	94%	4th April 2010 Lat 15.065 Lon -93.996 375 km W of Guatemala City off Chiapas, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead
Indonesia 1. Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 1105 hours 20th Mar)	M7.7*	62%	6th April 2010 Lat 2.360 Lon 97.132 230 km SW of Medan, Northern Sumatra, Ind. (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Indonesia 2. Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Apr 4+/-3 days (posted 1105 hours 20th Mar)	M5.5	96%	11th April 2010 Lat -5.598 Lon 101.692 210 km SSW of Bengkulu, Southwest of Sumatra, Ind. (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Indonesia 3. Sunda Strait Southern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 5+/-3 days (posted 0705 hours 20th Mar)	M5.0	100%	8th April 2010 Lat -5.074 Lon 105.054 220 WNW of Jakarta, Java (USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Apr 6+/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 20th Mar)	M3.4	89%	4th April 2010 Lat 39.32 Lon 16.21 138 km NE of Messina, Southern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 15 days ahead
Japan 1. Hokkaido Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 20th Mar)	M5.0	100%	8th April 2010 Lat 43.09 Lon 144.7 29 km NE of Kushiro, Hokkaido (EMSC source) forecast 19 days ahead
Japan 2. Honshu - Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0455 hours 20th Mar)	M4.9	98%	1st April 2010 Lat 31.62 Lon 141.66 488 km SSE of Tokyo, Off the East Coast of Honshu (USGS/NEIC and Google Earth sources) forecast 12 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Apr 7+/-3 days (posted 0705 hours 20th Mar)	M4.6	96%	8th April 2010 Lat 41.303 Lon 79.052 255 km E of Naryn, Kyrgyzstan, but in Southern Xinjiang, China USGS source) forecast 19 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region Newly defined within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Apr 10+/-3 days (posted 1125 hours 20th Mar)	M5.0	94%	14th April 2010 Lat 18.204 Lon -101.356 65 km NNE of Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 25 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region, PNG Newly defined within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Apr 10+/-3 days (posted 1125 hours 20th Mar)	M5.5	89%	11th April 2010 Lat -5.320 Lon 152.282 120 km S of Rabaul, New Britain, PNG (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0705 hours 20th Mar)	M4.3	98%	13th April 2010 Lat -38.52 Lon 178.67 60 km E of Gisborne, North Island, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 24 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0705 hours 20th Mar)	M3.8	83%	3rd April 2010 Lat -43.25 Lon 172.76 30 km N of Christchurch, South Island, NZ forecast 14 days ahead
Pakistan Islamabad Region within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Apr 3+/-3 days (posted 0705 hours 20th Mar)	M4.8	94%	12th April 2010 Lat 34.094 Lon 69.938 85 km ESE of Kabul, Central Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M5.0-M7.0 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 20th Mar)	NIL	0%	Nil within nominated zone and time window
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Apr 3+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 20th Mar)	M4.9	96%	12th April 2010 Lat 16.269 Lon 119.735 225 km NW of Manila, Luzon, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 23 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Apr 10+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 20th Mar)	M4.5	85%	7th April 2010 Lat -17.18 Lon -172.76 388 km SSW of Apia, Samoa (USGS/NEIC and Google Earth souces) forecast 18 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Apr 11+/-3 days (posted 0900 hours 20th Mar)	M6.8	74%	11th April 2010 Lat -10.913 Lon 161.130 205 km SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco Newly defined within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Apr 4+/-3 days (posted 1105 hours 20th Mar)	M6.2	61%	11th April 2010 Lat 37.05 Lon -3.49 16 km SE of Granada, Spain (EMSC source) forecast 22 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M3.8-M5.8 expected about Apr 6+/-3 days (posted 1105 hours 20th Mar)	M5.3	90%	11th April 2010 Lat 23.25 Lon 122.01 210 km SSE of T'ai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M3.6-M5.6 expected about Apr 10+/-3 days (REVISED 2147 hours 7th April)	M3.2	70%	9th April 2010 Lat 40.43 Lon 28.94 28 km NW of Bursa, Western Turkey (EMSC source) forecast 2 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Apr 3+/-3 days (posted 1105 hours 20th Mar)	M5.3	100%	11th April 2010 Lat -12.994 Lon 166.427 290 km NNW of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 22 days ahead

* This major earthquake seems totally unpredictable and "out of sink" with all expectations from our modelling of events in Northern Sumatra - it falls in the 10-15% of large earthquakes that cannot be forecast accurately many days ahead of time, based on present knowledge, or the application of present knowledge. Much is learnt from events such as this which always cause a review of the parameters used in the modelling where a forecast has failed.

Table 28a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from March 16-29* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude in each region	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within ≈130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 23+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M3.4	85%	28th March 2010 Lat 61.719 Lon -151.498 109 km WNW of Anchorage Southern Alaska (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.7-M4.7 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M3.7	100%	17th March 2010 Lat 40.185 Lon -121.329 182 km N of Sacramento, Northern California (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast newly defined within 250 km of a center at Lat 41.12 Lon -124.25, 11 km NW of Trinidad, Near Coast of Northern CA	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M3.8	100%	22nd March 2010 Lat 41.850 Lon -126.053 154 km W of Crescent City, Off the Coast of Northern CA (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
California 'Southern' newly defined within only 160 km of Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M3.1	87%	21st March 2010 Lat 33.943 Lon -116.737 135 km NNE of San Diego, CA (USGS source) forecast 11 days ahead
Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M3.5	80%	28th March 2010 Lat 18.561 Lon -66.932 85 km W of San Juan, PR (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
Caribbean Dominican Republic & Haiti Region New Region within 500 km of Joanneau Haiti (Lat 18.478 and Lon -72.10). The region includes parts of Cuba and Jamaica.	M2.8-M4.8 expected about Mar 23+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M5.6	68%	20th March 2010 Lat 19.731 Lon -75.279 45 km S of Guantanamo, Cuba Region (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Chile Northern Region within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402	M4.9-M6.9 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M4.9	83%	18th March 2010 Lat -21.77 Lon -68.29 100 km NE of Calama, Chile (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Chile Central Region New Region (posted 28 February after the M8.8 earthquake) within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M5.9	98%	28th March 2010 Lat -35.344 Lon -72.968 300 km SW of Santiago, Offshore Maule, Chile (USGS source) forecast 18 days ahead
China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 27+/-3 days (posted 0445 hours 10th Mar)	M4.3	93%	23rd March 2010 Lat 31.19 Lon 130.69 72 km NW of Chengdu, Sichuan, China (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) forecast 13 days ahead
China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)	M5.0	80%	18th March 2010 Lat 34.33 Lon 81.76 In Xizang, 355 km SSE of Hotan, Xinjiang, China (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60	M3.0-M5.0 expected about Mar 23+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)	M4.5	89%	21st March 2010 Lat 6.740 Lon -73.114 44 km S of Bucaramanga, Northern Colombia (USGS source). forecast 11 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)	M5.6	91%	18th March 2010 Lat -23.36 Lon -177.06 311 km SW of Nuku'alofa, South of Fiji Islands (EMSC source) forecast 8 days ahead
Greece newly defined within 225 km of a center point at Tripolis (Lat 37.53 and Lon 22.382)	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0545 hours 10th Mar)	M3.7	84%	23rd March 2010 Lat 38.84 Lon 22.01 71 km N of Pátrai, Greece (EMSC source) forecast 13 days ahead
Guatemala - El Salvador Region within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558	M3.7-M5.7 expected about Mar 25+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)	M5.3	89%	20th March 2010 Lat 16.047 Lon -91.236 175 km NNW of Guatemala City, Guatemala (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead
Hawaii New zone within only 85 km of a center point at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on Island of Hawaii	M1.7-M3.7 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)	M2.9	93%	24th March 2010 Lat 19.20 Lon -155.629 15 km W of Pahala, HI (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Mar 22+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)	M5.8	84%	30th March 2010 (on cusp of moon periods) Lat 43.312 Lon 138.380 245 km W of Sapporo, Hokkaido (USGS source) forecast 20 days ahead
Honshu Japan Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 10th Mar)	M4.7	94%	27th March 2010 Lat 33.376 Lon 141.104 285 km SSE of Tokyo, Off the East Coast of Honshu, Japan (USGS source) forecast 17 days ahead
Italy 'Rome Region' within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488	M2.9-M4.9 expected about Mar 20+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M3.3	85%	25th March 2010 Lat 40.03 Lon 15.85 117 km SE of Salerno, Southern Italy (EMSC source) forecast 14 days ahead
Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 22+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M4.6	98%	23rd March 2010 Lat 37.383 Lon 74.653 435 km NNE of Islamabad, Hindu Kush Region of Afghanistan (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region (includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia) within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 22+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M4.8	94%	24th March 2010 Lat -6.598 Lon 104.621 240 km WSW of Jakarta, Sunda Straight, Indonesia (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22	M4.8-M6.8 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M4.9	84%	23rd March 2010 Lat 37.42 Lon 74.70 254 km SW of Kashi, Tajikistan (EMSC source) forecast 12 days ahead
Mexico Southern Region Newly defined within ≈550 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex. Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720	M4.5-M6.5 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M4.8	87%	19th March 2010 Lat 17.621 Lon -100.934 270 km SW of Mexico City, Guerrero, Mexico (USGS source) forecast 8 days ahead
New Britain- New Ireland Region Newly defined within 400 km of a center in the Bismarck Sea to the South of New Ireland at Lat -3.58 Lon 150.73	M4.2-M6.2 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M6.5	80%	20th March 2010 Lat -3.380 - Lon 152.22 150 km NW of Taron, New Ireland (USGS source - subject to review) forecast 9 days ahead
New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island	M3.4-M5.4 expected about Mar 18+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M4.0	91%	27th March 2010 Lat -40.48 Lon 176.69 180 km NE Wellington, NZ (GNS Science/GeoNet) forecast 16 days ahead
New Zealand Southern Region within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ	M3.5-M5.5 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M5.3	85%	18th March 2010 Lat -48.659 Lon 164.649 375 km SW of Invercargill, Off West Coast, South Is. (USGS source) forecast 7 days ahead
Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA newly defined within 400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE. Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892	M3.5-M5.5 expected between Mar 26-30 (revised 0925 hours 26th Mar)	M5.0	91%	29th March 2010 Lat 51.26 Lon -130.83 211 km WSW of Bella Bella, BC, Canada (Natural Resources Canada - Earthquakes Canada source) forecast 3 days ahead. This quake was just some 23 km outside the nominated zone of radius 400 km.
Peru Central to Southern Region within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83	M4.1-M6.1 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0050 hours 11th Mar)	M5.2	98%	23rd March 2010 Lat -15.33 Lon -74.55 188 km SE of Ica, Peru (USGS & Google Earth sources) forecast 12 days ahead
Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila.	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 0123 hours 11th Mar)	M6.1	82%	25th March 2010 Lat 13.744 Lon 120.069 135 km SW of Manilla, Mindoro, Philippines (USGS source) forecast 14 days ahead
Samoa-Tonga Newly defined within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617	M4.3-M6.3 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0123 hours 11th Mar)	M5.1	96%	24th March 2010 Lat -15.035 Lon -174.190 110 km NNW of Hihifo, Tonga (USGS source) forecast 13 days ahead
Solomons Region Newly defined within ≈450 km of center at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.	M4.1-M6.1 expected between Mar 26-30 (revised 0925 hours 26th Mar)	M4.3	84%	28th March 2010 Lat -6.91 Lon 154.54 140 km SW of Arawa, Bougainville (USGS source) forecast 2 days ahead
Spain and Portugal - Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco Newly defined within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 26+/-3 days (posted 0625 hours 11th Mar)	M4.1	85%	27th March 2010 Lat 38.99 Lon -7.57 53 km W of Badajoz, Portugal (EMSC source) forecast 16 days ahead
Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 18+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)	M4.6	92%	17th March 2010 Lat 4.48 Lon 95.52 121 km S of Banda Aceh, Northern Sumatra (EMSC source) forecast 6 days ahead
Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14	M4.6-M6.6 expected about Mar 24+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)	M5.4	96%	17th March 2010 Lat -4.701 Lon 102.757 15 km SSE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source) forecast 6 days ahead
Taiwan Region Newly defined within 200 km of a center near West Coast of Taiwan at Dacheng, Lat 23.847 Lon 120.308	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 25+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)	M4.6	92%	18th March 2010 Lat 24.42 Lon 122.05 67 km NE of Hualian, Taiwan Region (EMSC source) forecast 7 days ahead
Turkey 'Western Region' within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4	M4.0-M6.0 expected about Mar 21+/-3 days (posted 0340 hours 17th Mar)	M4.8	98%	26th March 2010 Lat 38.240 Lon 26.253 80 KM wsw of izmir, Near the Coast of Western Turkey ((USGS source) forecast 9 days ahead
Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15	M3.9-M5.9 expected about Mar 19+/-3 days (posted 1040 hours 11th Mar)	M5.2	94%	21st March 2010 Lat -14.744 Lon 167.134 85 km N of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source) forecast 10 days ahead

Table 27b. Regional forecasts for Full Moon Period

from March 1-15* 2010

REGION	Expected Magnitude Ranges & Dates	Observed Maximum Magnitude	Accuracy compared to mid range (%)	Observed Date & Location
Alaska Anchorage Region newly defined within only 130 km of Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889	M2.5-M4.5 expected about Mar 12+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M3.7	95%	2nd March 2010 Lat 62.405 Lon -149.963 135 km N of Anchorage, Central Alaska (USGS source) forecast 12 days ahead
California 'Northern' within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86	M2.1-M4.1 expected about Mar 7+/-3 days (posted 0120 hours 18th Feb)	M3.8	82%	1st March 2010 Lat 36.066 Lon -117.877 226 km N of Los Angeles Civic Center, Central CA (USGS source)

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