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Earthquake Predictions
CHINA REGION and Western Xinjiang
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Terracotta Army, © copyright 2008 David Pedre, istockphoto. All rights reserved.
Earthquake predictions for Southern China have been added here since the disastrous M7.9 earthquake in Eastern Sichuan on 12 May (UTC) 2008, as the author believes that this powerful earthquake may have been anticipated by using his methods for forecasting earthquakes.
The Sichuan Region is defined for these predictions as
including all events within a 500 km radius of the epicenter
of the above M7.9 earthquake, centered on Lat 31.015°N and
Lon 103.365°E.
The Western Xinjiang Region was added July 2009 to the Long-term Forecasts tables under Kazakhstan and other nearby regions. This region includes all earthquake events within approximately 500 km of a center point in Xinjiang at
Lat 39.43°N, Lon 75.22°E which experienced a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in 1985.
On this page, all earthquake predictions for Southern China are for the
largest earthquake in a nominated period, plus an error margin of about one day, but no attempt is made to make forecasts for all periods because of the constraints of private research. Each table, with its original earthquake prediction, will remain subject to revisions or updates for 10 days. This statement does not apply to the Long-term Forecasts given elsewhere on this site.
Why updates may be necessary... because earthquakes
interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the
weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve forecasting.
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SCROLL DOWN FOR TABLES
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STATISTICS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION For period 13 August 2007 - 12 July 2008 (256 predictions)
SUCCESS RATES*
Mag Observed Events Predicted Events
(How many predicted?) (How many observed?)
Pred. Obs. %Correct Obs. Pred. %Correct
<M4 60 67 = 90% 58 66 = 88%
M4.0-4.9 76 85 = 89% 57 60 = 95%
M5.0-5.9 73 77 = 95% 90 96 = 94%
M6.0+ 25 27 = 93% 29 34 = 85%
___________________________________________ *These statistics are updated periodically and refer to tabled predictions only, as no attempt
is made to predict all large earthquakes worldwide. Note that currently successful predictions are those which are ≈80% accurate on magnitude, and within a 10-day time window (plus an error margin of about one day), reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is still an imprecise science. However, research here is aimed at improving this margin and currently 75% of all magnitude predictions have an error margin of only 15%. Any apparent numerical discrepancies between the two halves of the above table are due to the error margins: for example, an M6 category predicted quake might have come in at M5.8
OVERALL success rate from 256 predictions worldwide-
Observed events that were predicted (234/256) = 91.4%
Predicted events that were observed (234/256) = 91.4%
SCIENTIFIC: Correlation of Predicted & Observed Magnitudes
There is a highly significant correlation (r=0.90, P< .0001) between the full set of observed and predicted magnitudes, including 'false alarms' (Worldwide N=256 as of 12 July 2008).
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION TABLES
M= Earthquake magnitude. See HOME page for further explanation of table entries.
Earthquake Location Maps - see the USGS web site for maps of earthquakes in these tables.
New 3-layer Table Format & Prediction Rules (25 Nov 07)
Please read following points to fully explain tables below:
1. The Original Earthquake Prediction, and details relating to it, are given in the top light blue layer of each table.
The 'expected date' (or dates) given here provide the best current estimate of when the largest earthquake event is most likely within the nominated 10-day window (date prediction made +10, or possibly ≈11 days). Please note that the time window now includes an error margin of ≈1 day which may extend it to include some closely predicted events, reflecting the fact that earthquake prediction is an imprecise science. The above estimates and other details may be updated, if necessary, in the next section of the table.
The Expected Range in Magnitude, for each event after 14th July 2008, is given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude (previously it was given as +/-0.5M). Statistical analyses of over 100 of the latest predictions show that 95% of them can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted values, regardless of the region of the world involved. From 14th July 2008, any predictions which fall outside these limits by as little as 0.1M will be regarded as unsuccessful.
2. Revisions, if required, are given in the mid blue layer of each table, and these revisions are used in the final assessments of the results. Please see the statement above explaining why updates are desirable, and note that revisions are limited to a 10-day window. Revisions usually relate to
earthquake magnitude and expected timing, but may also include location.
3. The Observed Earthquake and details (for the event we were attempting to predict) are given in the bottom dark blue layer of each table. The event recorded here is the largest earthquake for the nominated 10-11 day period. 'PENDING...' simply means that the anticipated event has not yet happened, or that we are waiting for the event to be posted on the web site.
Earthquake Predictions for Southern China
(All predictions are based on USGS data to which the author has ready access.)
China Standard Time = UTC + 8 hours
All times on this web site are given in UTC (Universal Coodinated Time)
See also Long-term Forecasts
These Long-term Forecasts now give the approximate timing of the largest regional earthquakes for the lunar month ahead.
The Short-term tables below will be used to make revisable and, generally, more precise earthquake predictions for some of the important events that are indicated as being imminent in the Long-term Forecasts.
No. 10 Sichuan-Gansu Region
PREDICTED M5.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 14th May 14-23 May (UTC) 2009 Predicted at 0810 hrs UTC (time window open to 23rd May +1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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OBSERVED M4.5 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 81.8% 14th May at Lat 32.27 Lon 104.93 |
No. 9 Sichuan-Gansu Region
PREDICTED M4.9 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 14th April 14-24 April (UTC) 2009 Predicted at 1216 hrs UTC (time window open to 24th April +1 day margin) Probability of event >90%
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OBSERVED M3.8 Observed date/Location |
No. 8 'Xizang Region'
PREDICTED M4.0 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 27 Jan 27-31 January (UTC) 2009 Predicted at 1038 hrs UTC (time window open to 5th February) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89
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| OBSERVED M3.8 Observed Date/Location Predicted 9 days ahead 5th February at Lat 30.29 Lon 82.67 Magnitude accuracy 95% 390 km NW from Kathmandu in the Nepal-Xizang Border Region (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) Xiang, China |
No. 7
PREDICTED M4.5 Expected Date/Location Original prediction 16 Jan 16-25 January (UTC) 2009 Predicted at 0930 hrs UTC (time window open to 25th January) Probability of event >85% within 500 km of center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89
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| OBSERVED M4.4 Observed Date/Location Magnitude accuracy 97.8% 21st January at Lat 35.67 Lon 82.61 Predicted 5 days ahead 335 km NW of region's center (JOPENS & Google Earth sources) 'Xizang Region' |
Earlier tables have been removed to save space