EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS here have a strong scientific physical basis and are derived through unique mathematical modeling which took some four years to develop and is the intellectual property of Dr Reg Roberts. In due course the author will publish the methodology. However, as recently as October 2009 one of the most important breakthroughs in the author's research impacted positively on predictions reported here, especially with significant improvements in the accuracy of most Long-term Forecasts.
Disclaimer
The earthquake predictions and long-term forecasts are given in good faith and with due care, but the author accepts no responsibility for their use, either directly, indirectly, or implied. Any person or organisation who uses these earthquake predictions or forecasts for any purpose whatsoever, does so at their own risk.
Please note new Email address is: reginaldroberts@bigpond.com
October 2009: The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September) two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few months before all the sites below are fully included in the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent. |
The earthquake predictions or forecasts are regional in scope and the areas involved generally have a radius of from 85 km (Island of Hawaii) up to a radius of 550 km (Oaxaca, Mexico). All the author's study areas around the Pacific Rim, and in the Mediterranean, Europe, China, the Caribbean and other regions, have now been scaled down in size (as of February, 2008) so that they do not exceed areas of 550 km radius from their selected centers. This greater focus should make the predictive modeling much more relevant to centers of population.
There are now 34 regions of the world included in the Long-term Forecasts.
The latest entries in the list of regions under study are:
(1) Western Turkey. Earthquake predictions commenced 2 March 2008.
(2) The Mendocino Triple Junction and associated areas of high seismic activity in the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone giving rise to earthquake events off the coast of Northern California and Oregon. This very significant region was added on 11 April 2008 to the page for Northern California's predictions.
(3) The Hokkaido Region, Japan, which has experienced two Great Earthquakes since the 1960's. Predictions for this region commenced 21 April 2008.
(4) Southern China - Eastern Sichuan Region. Earthquake predictions for this region commenced 15 May 2008.
(5) The Philippines - Manila Region. Earthquake predictions for the
Philippines commenced 17 May 2008.
(6) Taiwan - Predictions for this region commenced 18 May, 2008.
(7) Colombia, South America - Predictions commenced 12 June 2008 and are temporarily added to the page for Peru, but also in the page for Long-term Forecasts.
(8) Islamabad Region, Pakistan - see starting Table 10 in Long-term Forecasts. This region experienced a devastating earthquake in October 2005.
(9) Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan - see starting Table 10, Long-term Forecasts. This region of Northern Afghanistan has experienced two major earthquakes since 1965.
(10) Seattle USA and Vancouver region of Canada - Predictions for this region began 10 October 2008 in Table 10 of Long-term Forecasts.
This region, in the Cascadia subduction zone, experienced a magnitude 6.8 earthquake on 28th February 2001.
(11) Spain - Predictions for the region within 400 km of Reillo began in the Table 14a of Long-term Forecasts on 26 January 2009.
(12) Rome Region of Italy (within ≈400 km of Rome) was added on 8th April 2009 to Table 16b in Long-term Forecasts. This region has experienced five earthquakes of magnitude 6.0-6.5 since 1980 (USGS source).
(13) Alaska within ≈500 km of a center point 100 km S of Anchorage was added on 10 April 2009 to Table 16b in Long-term Forecasts. This region has experienced five earthquakes of magnitude 7.0-7.9 since 1987 (USGS source).
(14) Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to the northern tip of Afghanistan, and including parts of Southern Xinjiang, China. This region was added to Table 20a in Long-term Forecasts on July 24, 2009. The region has experienced 59 strong earthquakes and 6 major earthquakes since the beginning of 1975.
(15) Samoa-Tonga Region - This very seismically active region was added on December 15, 2009. The region has experienced 102 strong earthquakes, 7 major earthquakes, and one great earthquake since 1975.
(16) Haiti-Dominican Republic Region, including parts of Cuba and Jamaica. This region was added on February 27, 2010. Since 1975 this region of the Caribbean has experienced four strong earthquakes and one major earthquake (USGS/NEIC source)
(17) Central Chile Region - within 500 km of Santa Cruz was added to the Long-term Tables on February 28, after the disastrous magnitude 8.8 earthquake. Since 1975 this region has experienced 52 strong earthquakes, 7 major ones, plus the recent great earthquake (USGS/NEIC source).
The purpose of this web site is to show that the prediction of some 85% of the largest earthquakes for a given region, and for a specified short-term period, is now broadly possible with regard to timing (up to about a month ahead) and magnitude (mostly within 90%), even though the methods used here do not allow prediction of the precise location. All predictions of earthquakes are given in good faith with the aim of aiding seismological research to save lives and property.
The Author Reg Roberts holds a PhD in Entomology from the University of Illinois (1962) and a D.I.C. (Diploma of Imperial College, London (1972). Before his retirement he was a Principal Research Scientist in CSIRO Australia where he studied the population dynamics of pasture insects. Reg is an expert on pattern recognition. Since early in 2005 he has been applying this expertise to studying the ecology and dynamics of earthquakes around the Pacific Rim, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean regions, and parts of Europe and Asia. His research has already yielded astonishing results which bring accurate earthquake predictions a huge step closer to fulfillment. By sharing these predictions the author hopes that other researchers will benefit in the quest to make accurate predictions.
The Tables of Earthquake Predictions or Forecasts for each region (see adjacent menu) give the predicted and observed magnitude (M) of the largest earthquake for a specified period (usually a 10-day window, or up to a month for Long-term Forecasts). The predictions and forecasts presented here are the product of private research and they are subject to intellectual copyright. No person may use these earthquake predictions and forecasts without giving due credit to the author. The observed magnitudes and locations are derived from the web sites of the USGS, EMSC, Geoscience Australia, GeoNet (N.Z.), Google Earth, Earthquakes Canada (Natural Resources Canada), and JOPENS and contributing networks, and this researcher is indebted to their seismologists (see Links below) . No attempt is made here to predict every peak in earthquake activity, because of the constraints of private research. However, all earthquake predictions and forecasts that are made by this author will remain posted on this web site for at least the last 30 days. As research advances, it is hoped the success rate will improve, but at the present time about 15% of earthquakes cannot be forecast and so readers should expect this when studying the tables. There is a special section of the Menu for 2-6 week Long-term Forecasts.
NOTES FOR ALL TABLES:
. EXPECTED RANGE IN MAGNITUDE is now given as the predicted magnitude +/-1 magnitude, or less. Statistical analyses
show that >85% of predictions can be expected to fall within +/-1M of the predicted
values, regardless of the region of the world involved. Any predictions which fall outside these limits by >0.1M will be considered unsuccessful.
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Revised or Cancelled Earthquake Predictions will be clearly indicated within the relevant tables. The original earthquake prediction and date will remain shown together with the revision. Updates may become necessary as more information comes to hand because earthquakes interact in a very dynamic system. Just as in reporting the weather, the latest information must be taken into account to improve earthquake forecasting.
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